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FC Koln vs Werder Bremen

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 43.7%

Draw: 24.5%

Werder Bremen win: 31.8%

Predicted: FC Koln

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.78

More corners: Werder Bremen (49.0% home / 51.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Werder Bremen

Yes

Probability Werder Bremen wins or draws: 58.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result FC Koln Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 32%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Werder Bremen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.